Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:
OSCARS | EMMYS | GRAMMYS | TONYS
2024 Oscars Predictions:
Best International Feature
Courtesy Cannes Film Festival
Weekly Commentary (Updated Nov. 17, 2023): The AMPAS members who have opted in to vote on the international feature category have been assigned their required viewing lists. With the shortlist voting period right around the corner, buzzy and festival-winning titles will have an advantage in the race. What’s interesting to note, many of the top presumed contenders are female-driven vehicles
It’s always safe to look at the movies with the best chance to garner noms in other categories.
Notably, that puts Jonathan Glazer’s Holocaust drama “The Zone of Interest” in the pole position for the United Kingdom. The A24 critically acclaimed movie is in contention in categories such as best picture, director, supporting actress, adapted screenplay, and even a few techs.
Following the U.K. is France’s “The Taste of Things” from Cannes-winning director Tràn Anh Hùng (going for director and supporting actress Juliette Binoche), Spain’s “Society of the Snow” (looking for love for original score and cinematography) and Germany’s “The Teachers’ Lounge” (angling for original screenplay and actress attention).
Fifteen movies will fill out the shortlist, and they could include some “double-dippers” from the animation and documentary space. Animated dramas like Poland’s “The Peasants” can factor into the discussion, with non-fiction flicks like Tunisia’s “Four Daughters” also vying for love.
Romania’s dark comedy “Do Not Expect Too Much From the End of the World” from Radu Jude has been well-liked on the festival circuit, in addition to Mexico’s “Tótem” by Lila Avilés. Both picked up jury prizes on their journey. Both movies could be potential spoilers in the race.
Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Oscars predictions in all categories.
The submission deadline for general categories is Nov. 15, 2023. The preliminary shortlist for eight categories is from Dec. 14-18, with the results announcement dropping on Dec. 21. The Oscar nomination period will run from Jan. 11-16, 2024, with the official nominees named on Jan. 23.
The 96th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 10.
***The list below is not final and will be updated throughout the awards season.
And the Predicted Nominees Are:
- “The Zone of Interest” (United Kingdom) — dir. Jonathan Glazer
- “The Taste of Things” (France) — dir. Trần Anh Hùng
- “The Teachers’ Lounge” (Germany) — dir. İlker Çatak
- “Society of the Snow” (Spain) — dir. J.A. Bayona
- “Perfect Days” (Japan) — dir. Wim Wenders
Next in Line
- “Do Not Expect Too Much from the End of the World” (Romania) — dir. Radu Jude
- “Fallen Leaves” (Finland) — dir. Aki Kaurismäki
- “The Peasants” (Poland) — dir. D.K. Welchman, Hugh Welchman
- “Io capitano” (Italy) — dir. Matteo Garrone
- “The Settlers” (Chile) — dir. Felipe Gálvez Haberle
Other Top-Tier Possibilities
- “Tótem” (Mexico) — dir. Lila Avilés
- “The Promised Land” (Denmark) — dir. Nikolaj Arcel
- “Four Daughters” (Tunisia) — dir. Kaouther Ben Hania
- “The Delinquents” (Argentina) — dir. Rodrigo Moreno
- “The Monk and the Gun” (Bhutan) — dir. Pawo Choyning Dorji
- “Shayda” (Australia) — dir. Noora Niasari
- “20 Days in Mariupol” (Ukraine) — dir. Mstyslav Chernov
- “About Dry Grasses” (Turkey) — dir. Nuri Bilge Ceylan
- “Concrete Utopia” (South Korea) — dir. Um Tae-hwa
- “Omen” (Belgium) — dir. Baloji
Also In Contention
- “Godland” (Iceland) — dir. Hlynur Pálmason
- “In the Shadow of Beirut” (Ireland) — dir. Stephen Gerard Kelly and Garry Keane
- “The Missing” (Philippines) — dir. Carl Joseph Papa
- “Un Varón” (Colombia) — dir. Fabián Hernández Alvarado
- “Bye Bye Tiberias” (Palestine) — dir. Lina Soualem
- “Traces” (Croatia) — dir. Dubravka Turic
- “The Visitor” (Bolivia) — dir. Martín Boulocq
- “Blaga’s Lessons” (Bulgaria) — dir. Stephan Komandarev
- “Rojek” (Canada) — dir. Zaynê Akyol
- “Smoke Sauna Sisterhood” (Estonia) — dir. Anna Hints
All Official Submissions (Alphabetized by Country)**
- “Alexander” (Albania) — dir. Ardit Sadiku
- “The Delinquents” (Argentina) — dir. Rodrigo Moreno
- “Amerikatsi” (Armenia) — dir. Michael A. Goorjian
- “Shayda” (Australia) — dir. Noora Niasari
- “Vera” (Austria) — dir. Tizza Covi and Rainer Frimmel
- “No Ground Beneath the Feet” (Bangladesh) — dir. Mohammad Rabby Mridha
- “Omen” (Belgium) — dir. Baloji
- “The Monk and the Gun” (Bhutan) — dir. Pawo Choyning Dorji
- “The Visitor” (Bolivia) — dir. Martín Boulocq
- “Excursion” (Bosnia and Herzegovina) — dir. Una Gunjak
- “Pictures of Ghosts” (Brazil) — dir. Kleber Mendonça Filho
- “Blaga’s Lesson” (Bulgaria) — dir. Stephan Komandarev
- “Sira” (Burkina Faso) — dir. Apolline Traoré
- “Half Heaven” (Cameroon) — dir. Enah Johnscott
- “Rojek” (Canada) — dir. Zaynê Akyol
- “The Settlers” (Chile) — dir. Felipe Gálvez Haberle
- “The Wandering Earth II” (China) — dir. Frant Gwo
- “Un Varón” (Colombia) — dir.
- “I Have Electric Dreams” (Costa Rica) — dir. Valentina Maurel
- “Traces” (Croatia) — dir. Dubravka Turic
- “Nlsito’s World” (Cuba) — dir. Fernando Pérez
- “Brothers” (Czech Republic) — dir. Tomáš Mašín
- “The Promised Land” (Denmark) — dir. Nikolaj Arcel
- “Cuarencena” (Dominican Republic) — dir. David Maler
- “Voy! Voy! Voy!” (Egypt) — dir. Omar Hilal
- “Smoke Sauna Sisterhood” (Estonia) — dir. Anna Hints
- “Fallen Leaves” (Finland) — dir. Aki Kaurismäki
- “The Taste of Things” (France) — dir. Trần Anh Hùng
- “Citizen Saint” (Georgia) — dir. Tinatin Kajrishvili
- “The Teachers’ Lounge” (Germany) — dir. İlker Çatak
- “Behind the Haystacks” (Greece) — dir. Asimina Proedrou
- “A Light Never Goes Out” (Hong Kong) — dir. Anastasia Tsang
- “Four Souls of Coyote” (Hungary) — dir. Áron Gauder
- “Godland” (Iceland) — dir. Hlynur Pálmason
- “2018” (India) — dir. Jude Anthany Joseph
- “Autobiography” (Indonesia) — dir. Makbul Mubarak
- “The Night Guardian” (Iran) — dir. Reza Mirkarimi
- “Hanging Gardens” (Iraq) — dir. Ahmed Yassin Al Daradji
- “In the Shadow of Beirut” (Ireland) — dir. Stephen Gerard Kelly and Garry Keane
- “Seven Blessings” (Israel) — dir. Ayelet Menahemi
- “Io capitano” (Italy) — dir. Matteo Garrone
- “Perfect Days” (Japan) — dir. Wim Wenders
- “Inshallah a Boy” (Jordan) — dir. Amjad Al-Rasheed
- “Mvera” (Kenya) — dir. Daudi Anguka
- “This is What I Remember” (Kyrgyzstan) — dir. Aktan Abdykalykov
- “My Freedom” (Latvia) — dir. Ilze Kunga-Melgaile
- “Slow” (Lithuania) — dir. Marija Kavtaradzė
- “The Last Ashes” (Luxembourg) — dir. Loïc Tanson
- “Tiger Stripes” (Malaysia) — dir. Amanda Nell Eu
- “Tótem” (Mexico) — dir. Lila Avilés
- “Thunders” (Moldova) — dir. Ioane Bobeica
- “City of Wind” (Mongolia) — dir. Lkhagvadulam Purev-Ochir
- “Sirin” (Montenegro) — dir. Senad Šahmanović
- “The Mother of All Lies” (Morocco) — dir. Asmae El Moudir
- “Under the Hanging Tree” (Namibia) — dir. Perivi Katjavivi
- “Halkara” (Nepal) — dir. Bikram Sapkota
- “Sweet Dreams” (Netherlands) — dir. Ena Sendijarević
- “Mami Wata” (Nigeria) — dir. C.J. Obasi
- “Housekeeping for Beginners” (North Macedonia) — dir. Goran Stolevski
- “Songs of Earth” (Norway) — dir. Margreth Olin
- “In Flames” (Pakistan) — dir. Zarrar Kahn
- “Bye Bye Tiberias” (Palestine) — dir. Lina Soualem
- “Tito, Margot & Me” (Panama) — dir. Mercedes Arias and Delfina Vidal
- “The Last Runway 2, Commando Yaguarete” (Paraguay) — dir. Armando Aquino and Mauricio Rial
- “The Erection of Toribio Bardelli” (Peru) — dir. Adrián Saba
- “The Missing” (Philippines) — dir. Carl Joseph Papa
- “The Peasants” (Poland) — dir. DK Welchman and Hugh Welchman
- “Bad Living” (Portugal) — dir. João Canijo
- “Do Not Expect Too Much from the End of the World” (Romania) — dir. Radu Jude
- “Alhamour H.A.” (Saudi Arabia) — dir. Abdulelah Alqurashi
- “Banel & Adama” (Senegal) — dir. Ramata-Toulaye Sy
- “The Duke and the Poet” (Serbia) — dir. Milorad Milinković
- “The Breaking Ice” (Singapore) — dir. Anthony Chen
- “Photophobia” (Slovakia) — dir. Ivan Ostrochovský and Pavol Pekarčík
- “Riders” (Slovenia) — dir. Dominik Mencej
- “Music is My Life — Dr. Joseph Shabalalal and Ladysmith Black Mambazo” (South Africa) — dir. Mpumi Mbele
- “Concrete Utopia” (South Korea) — dir. Um Tae-hwa
- “Society of the Snow” (Spain) — dir. J.A. Bayona
- “Goodbye Julia” (Sudan) — dir. Mohamed Kordofani
- “Opponent” (Sweden) — dir. Milad Alami
- “Thunder” (Switzerland) — dir. Carmen Jaquier
- “Marry My Dead Body” (Taiwan) — dir. Cheng Wei-hao
- “Melody” (Tajikistan) — dir. Behrouz Sebt Rasoul
- “Not Friends” (Thailand) — dir. Atta Hemwadee
- “Four Daughters” (Tunisia) — dir. Kaouther Ben Hania
- “About Dry Grasses” (Turkey) — dir. Nuri Bilge Ceylan
- “20 Days in Mariupol” (Ukraine) — dir. Mstyslav Chernov
- “The Zone of Interest” (United Kingdom) — dir. Jonathan Glazer
- “Family Album” (Uruguay) — dir. Guillermo Rocamora
- “The Shadow of the Sun” (Venezuela) — dir. Miguel Ángel Ferrer
- “Glorious Ashes” (Vietnam) — dir. Bùi Thạc Chuyên
- “The Burdened” (Yemen) — dir. Amr Gamal
2022 category winner: “All Quiet on the Western Front” (Germany) — dir. Edward Berger
** indicates an unconfirmed release date in 2023 or could campaign in the lead or supporting categories. All release dates are subject to change.
Oscars Predictions Categories
BEST PICTURE | DIRECTOR | BEST ACTOR | BEST ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ANIMATED FEATURE | PRODUCTION DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING | SOUND | VISUAL EFFECTS | ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG | DOCUMENTARY FEATURE | INTERNATIONAL FEATURE | ANIMATED SHORT | DOCUMENTARY SHORT | LIVE ACTION SHORT
About the Academy Awards
The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Seventeen branches are represented within the nearly 10,000-person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.
